Illarionov: Putin's goal is to reduce Ukraine to crisis through acts of terrorism and default, to remove Poroshenko and to introduce federal system 

In the morning January 24, Mariupol, which is controlled by the forces of the Ukrainian anti-terrorist operation, was shelled from Gradov rocket systems. It were fighters from the village of Sakhanka of Donetsk region who fired. OSCE observers confirmed in their report that the city had been shelled from the territory controlled by the fighters of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).

As a result of the shelling, 30 people died and 102 people got wounded, 53 multystorey houses, four schools, and three kindergartens were damaged, 40 cars burnt down. The secretary of the Council of National Security and Defense of Ukraine Oleksandr Tuchynov made the Russian President Vladimir Putin responsible for the event, and the president Petro Poroshenko called the attack at Mariupol "a crime against humanity".

The Russian economist, senior research associate of the Washington Cato Institute Andrey Illarionov is convinced that the shelling of Mariupol is only a trick; terrorists in Donbass are preparing assaults at other strategic objects. In the interview to the GORDON , Illarionov commented on the mistakes of the Ukrainian authorities, the Kremlin’s immediate plans and "the historical mission" of the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

– You claimed that the shelling of Mariupol is "a deceptive maneuver" for Ukraine to relax its attention in other sectors of the front. Which ones?

– Putin’s principal goal is to try to make the Ukrainian authorities sit down at the negotiating table with the terrorists, thereby legalizing them in the inter-Ukrainian context. The persuasion methods used are well-known techniques of the Committee for State Security – bribery, blackmail, threat of murder, and murder. It was so during the occupation of the Crimea, during occupation of the governmental buildings in Donbass, during the attack on August 24, 2014, and Ilovaisk encirclement, it was so during the surrender of the Donetsk airport. The same approach is also used during the attack at Mariupol.

Obviously, it was first planned "to scare" residents of a large city in order to force Ukrainian authorities to "retreat" and commence negotiations with the terrorists under the threat of more terrible results of further attacks. However, there was the so-called "performer's excess" – the casualties turned out greater than "was planned". Therefore, it was urgently ordered to cancel any further actions, and Zakharchenko, who had just solemnly declared the beginning of "attack at Mariupol", had to turn around (Alexander Zakharchenko, terrorist leader of DNR.– GORDON).

Instead of "successful coercion to peace with terrorists", there was a rigid reaction from the world community. Putin has to take a break, even if a short one. Most likely, he will not continue attacks and shelling in the same sector of the front. Instead, he will shift the main pressure on other two sectors – Debaltsevo in Donetsk region and Shchastye in Lugansk region. Debaltsevo is an important transport hub that can help significantly simplify the transport network of DNR and LNR. In Shchastye, there is a power plant supplying Lugansk with heat.